A new poll shows while most Ontarians support the Kathleen Wynne Liberals, very few of them say the party deserves re-election.
The Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News shows that if a provincial election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would receive 40 per cent support among decided voters.
That’s up five points from a similar poll taken in the days prior to the Throne Speech.
The Progressive Conservatives would receive 35 per cent of the vote, while the NDP would get 20 per cent.
However, just 25 per cent of Ontarians believe the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected.
In May, 31 per cent believed the government deserved re-election.
Wynne is chosen by 28 per cent of Ontarians as the major party leader who would make the best Premier of Ontario, well behind both NDP Leader Andrea Horwath at 37 per cent and PC Leader Patrick Brown at 35 per cent.
The poll also shows 62 per cent of Ontarians believe the province is heading in the “wrong direction.”
Ipsos poll highlights:
-Just one quarter (25%) of Ontarians believes the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election, which, counterintuitively, is down 3 points. Conversely, three quarters (75%) believe it’s time for another provincial party to take over. In May, 2015, 31% believed the government deserved re-election.
-One in three (35) ‘approve’ (5% strongly/29% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under Kathleen Wynne (up 3 points), while two in three (65%) ‘disapprove’ (42% strongly/23% somewhat). Wynne’s approval rating is down from 42% in May, 2015.
-A majority (62%) of Ontarians believe that the province is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ (up 3 points), while a minority (38%) believes things are on the ‘right track’ (down 3 points).
-Current Premier and Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne is chosen by 28% of Ontarians as the major party leader who would make the best Premier of Ontario, well behind both NDP Leader Andrea Horwath (37%) and PC Leader Patrick Brown (35%). None of these figures have changed since before the Throne Speech. In May, 2015, the race was much tighter: Horwath (36%), Brown (33%), Wynne (31%).
By merging the pre and post Throne Speech surveys together, one is able to take a more robust look at the results by key demographics that often inform the outcome of an election:
-In the 416, Toronto Proper, the Liberals (45%) are well ahead of the PCs (30%), NDP (19%) and other parties (5%).
-In the 905 region surrounding Toronto, the Liberals (41%) and PCs (40%) are statistically tied, while the NDP (17%) and other parties (2%) trail significantly.
-In Southwest Ontario a relatively tight race has emerged: the PCs (35%) have a modest lead over the Liberals (30%) and NDP (29%), while 7% of the vote would go to other parties (7%).
-In Central Ontario, the PCs (49%) are well ahead of the Liberals (26%), NDP (22%) and other parties (3%).
-In Eastern Ontario, the Liberals (39%) lead the PCs (34%), NDP (19%) and other parties (8%).
-In Northern Ontario, the Liberals (36%) have the edge over the PCs (31%) and NDP (26%), while other parties (7%) are behind.
Interestingly, there are no significant differences based on gender. However, vast generational differences exist:
-The Liberals have 53% of the vote among those aged 18-34, but drop to 30% among 35-54 year olds, and 32% among those aged 55+.
-Conversely, the PCs would receive 47% of the vote among those aged 55+, but drop to 39% among those 35-54, and just 19% among those under the age of 35.
-NDP support is much more consistent across age groups, with millennials (21%), Gen X (25%) and Boomers (19%) all nearly equally as likely to support the NDP.